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A Probability Forecast That Calls For A "40 Percent Chance Of Rain" Means That:

there is a 40 percent chance that it will not rain within the forecast area. there is a 40 percent chance that any random place in the forecast area will receive measurable rain. it will rain on 40 percent of the forecast area. it will rain during 40 percent of the time over the forecast area.
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there is a 40 percent chance that any random place in the forecast area will receive measurable rain.
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